Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Mauritania's GDP growth is considerably exposed to fluctuations in global mineral commodity prices given the large share of extractive industries in the country's economy. The extractive sector's normalization (from 18.3% in 2022 to 9.4% in 2023) was the main factor behind the slight dip in overall growth in 2023 (at 6.5%, down from 6.8% in 2022). However, growth in the non-extractive sector increased to 5.9% in 2023 (from 3.8% in 2022), driven by expanded financial services, particularly mobile banking, despite slowdowns in fisheries and agriculture. According to the IMF, economic growth in 2024 was projected to slow to 4.6%, primarily due to a contraction in the extractive sector. However, growth in the non-extractive sector was expected to remain strong at 5.7%, supported by better-than-expected performance in agriculture, fisheries, and continued growth in the financial sector. Despite the start of GTA offshore gas production, economic growth in 2025 is expected to slow to 4.2%, due to a projected 23.5% decline in gold production as some mines near the end of their cycle and a downward revision in iron ore output. Growth is forecast to decelerate further to 3.7% in 2026, reflecting continued declines in gold and iron ore production, before picking up in 2027-2029, driven by higher gold and iron ore production.

Regarding public finances, as of the end of September 2024, the 2024 budget execution was in line with projections, showing a slight overall fiscal surplus, with revenue surpassing expenditure. Revenue, including grants, totalled MRU 68.0 billion, representing 16.1% of the 2024 projected GDP (66.7% of the 2024 budget). Tax revenues were 30.1% higher year-to-date compared to the same period in 2023. According to the IMF, the non-extractive primary deficit, including grants, narrowed to 3.7% of GDP from 5.2% of GDP in 2023. As a result, public debt declined further from 46.4% in 2023 to 44.3% in 2024. Inflation rose to 2.5% (y-o-y) in October 2024, up from 1.6% at the end of 2023, driven primarily by food and beverages inflation, which accounted for more than half of the increase. With inflation projected to reach 3.0% by the end of 2024 (compared to 2.5% in October 2024), and remaining entrenched at 3-4% for more than 12 months, the BCM narrowed the interest rate corridor on October 22, 2024, and reduced the policy rate from 8% to 7.25%.

Overall, the government will need to modernize the country and support education and industrial diversification to limit its dependence on raw materials price fluctuations (iron, copper, gold, quartz, cattle, and fish). To this extent, authorities have elaborated an inclusive growth strategy for the period 2017-30, planning structural reforms and significant investment in infrastructure. The three pillars of this investment strategy are inclusive economic growth, human capital development, and governance improvement. The country's unemployment rate was estimated at 10.4% in 2024 (stable year-on-year); however, modest agricultural performance and rising inflation are expected to drive the poverty rate up to 31.8% by 2027, potentially pushing an estimated 193,000 people into poverty (data World Bank). Mauritania is considered a lower-middle-income country, with a GDP per capita (PPP) estimated at USD 8,233 in 2024 by the IMF.

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