Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Japan, the world's third-largest economy, is highly exposed to external impacts due to its heavy reliance on exports. This vulnerability has manifested itself in recent years, as its economy has experienced periods of recession alongside the global economic slowdown. After growing 1.7% in 2023, the economy contracted in early 2024 due to temporary supply disruptions but recovered in the latter half. Domestic demand, particularly private consumption, strengthened, though net external demand remained weak, resulting in an estimated 0.3% growth for the year. Real GDP is expected to expand by 1.1% in 2025, driven by domestic demand, before stabilizing at 0.8% in 2026 (IMF). Private consumption will benefit from strong wage growth, easing inflation, and recent government support. Business investment will be boosted by significant profit gains, partly due to the weak yen and government subsidies for green and digital initiatives.

Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world: estimated at 249.7% in 2023, it increased to 251.2% last year. However, negative real interest rates significantly support debt dynamics, with a downward trajectory expected over the forecast horizon (246.9% of GDP by 2026, as per the IMF forecast). In the long term, rising ageing-related costs could challenge debt stabilization without social security reforms or measures to boost potential growth. Japan's general government deficit fell to 1.9% of GDP in FY23 (ended March 2024) from 3.5% in FY22, driven by inflation-boosted revenues and a spending cut of over 2% of GDP as pandemic-related support was scaled back (Fitch Ratings). High corporate profits have supported tax revenues, while expenditures for economic recovery, including household and SME transfers, have been partly phased out. The fiscal deficit is expected to rise slightly in 2025 due to increased spending on defence, child-related measures, and industrial policies. The central bank's monetary strategy and strong domestic investor base help maintain low bond yields and support government financing despite gradual policy tightening. Japan's rating is further bolstered by persistent current account surpluses, a large external asset position, and the yen's reserve currency status. After decades of near-zero inflation, Japan's economy shows signs of reaching a new equilibrium. Inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over two years, supported by energy and food prices, while services inflation remains weaker. The IMF estimated an inflation rate of 2.2% in 2024, forecasting a minor decrease for this year and 2026 (around 2%).

The demographic troubles faced by Japan are getting more serious. An ageing society causes a big challenge for the country, as the government’s expected spending on pensions and health care is set to keep on rising. Additionally, a declining birth rate leads to a significant decrease in the population and as a result a decrease in the number of taxpayers. Japan’s working-age population has been declining for a few decades, but that has been offset by rising participation, helping in employment growth and maintaining a low unemployment rate (at 2.5% in 2024, with a stable outlook over the forecast horizon as per the IMF). Finally, Japan enjoys a high GDP per capita, estimated at USD 54,907 in 2024 by the IMF (PPP).

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