Jamaica: Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Jamaica is an upper-middle-income economy that is nevertheless struggling due to low growth, high public debt, and exposure to external shocks. According to the World Bank, after growing by 2.3% in 2023, the economy contracted by an average of 2% in the first three quarters of 2024. In Q2 2024, performance fell short of expectations due to declines in construction, manufacturing, and services. Following Hurricane Beryl in July 2024, nearly all sectors experienced negative growth in Q3, with agriculture and mining contracting by 12% and 17%, respectively. Overall, the economy is estimated to have shrunk by 0.7% in 2024. Looking ahead, growth is forecast to rebound to 1.7% in 2025 and stabilise around 1.6% over the medium term, led by recoveries in agriculture, mining, and construction.

Over the past decade, Jamaica strengthened its macroeconomic policies, creating buffers to manage unexpected shocks. The country reduced public debt, lowered financing costs, controlled inflation, increased banks’ capital and liquidity, built international reserves, and improved its external position. Key institutions like a fiscal responsibility law, a fiscal commission, inflation targeting, and financial oversight were established. In FY2024/25, fiscal revenues—mainly from income taxes and securitised airport revenue—rose, while expenditures grew due to hurricane response and public sector pay adjustments, but less than revenues. A fiscal surplus of 0.3% is estimated for FY2024/25. The fiscal balance is expected to align with the debt-to-GDP target of 60% by FY2027/28, supported by tax efforts and slightly lower spending, partly from reduced interest costs. Public debt is projected to reach 60.7% of GDP by 2027. After inflation surged to 6.4% year-on-year in August 2024 due to Hurricane Beryl’s temporary effect on food and utility prices, it stabilised around 5% by year-end. With inflation expectations anchored, the Bank of Jamaica cut its key policy rate four times in 2024 by 25 basis points each, reaching 6.0% in December. Inflation is projected to remain within the BOJ’s target range of 5±1% in 2025 (World Bank data). Over the last 30 years, real GDP per capita has increased at an average of just 1% per year, making Jamaica one of the slowest-growing developing countries in the world. The economy is diverse, but industries lack investment and modernisation. The country continues to derive most of its foreign exchange from tourism, remittances, and bauxite/alumina. Therefore, Jamaica is exceptionally susceptible to external shocks due to its heavy dependence on imports and tourism. Tourism and agriculture, together constituting over half of the job market, remain particularly vulnerable to external influences, especially climate-related disruptions, which have the potential to hinder both growth and poverty alleviation efforts. While the financial sector maintains stability, robust capitalisation, and profitability, it remains exposed to a range of potential shocks.

The World Bank estimated that the share of Jamaicans living on less than USD 6.85 per day fell from 13.7% in 2021 to 12.2% in 2024. Overall unemployment was 3.5% in Q4 2024, but higher among youth (11%) and female youth (13.7%). Labour force participation was 61.9% for working-age women, compared to 74.5% for men. Food insecurity remained a concern, affecting 32% of all households and 60% of those in the poorest quintile. As per capita real income rises, the share of Jamaicans living on less than USD 6.85 per day is expected to decline to 11% by 2027, though this remains above pre-pandemic levels. Lastly, the IMF estimated the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) at USD 12,032 in 2024.

Monetary Indicators	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Jamaican Dollar (JMD) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 GBP	182.57	207.40	189.11	191.61	199.94

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

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Latest Update: February 2026