Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Over the past decade, Côte d’Ivoire has steadily transformed its economy, achieving one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest growth rates. As the world’s top cocoa producer, it maintained strong GDP growth, averaging 8.2% from 2012 to 2019, and effectively managed the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite global challenges and tighter financial conditions, growth remained strong at 6.2% in 2023 and rose to 6.5% in 2024, driven by robust public and private investment and private consumption. Growth is expected to average 6.5% in 2025-2026, driven by sound policies, a growing extractive sector, and investment in infrastructure and agriculture. The "Calao" oil field could further enhance prospects, attract investors, and improve financing conditions.

Fiscal data for the first ten months of 2024 indicates that consolidation remained on track, with revenues, including grants, rising by 10.2% year-on-year, while expenditure grew by 5.9%. Therefore, the central government deficit for the year aligned with the 4% of GDP target, driven by ongoing tax reforms and administration measures. Controlled spending and under-execution of capital expenditure kept expenditure growth low. Fitch expects the deficit to reach 3% of GDP in 2025 and remain stable in the following years. Government debt remained stable at 58% in 2024 and is projected to decline to 52.7% by 2026. WAEMU fiscal convergence criteria remain suspended, with new ones under development. Although WAEMU's inflation has declined from its 2022 peak, it remained above target at 3.5% in 2024. Regional inflation is expected to reach its target by 2025, while reserves should gradually increase, driven by resumed bond issuances, recovering exports, and Euro Area monetary easing.

Extreme poverty fell to 10.3% in 2024, down 0.4 percentage points from 2023, marking a reversal after three years of increase. Higher cocoa farmgate prices boosted agricultural incomes, benefiting a large share of the workforce, particularly rural workers and the poor. Lower food inflation and growth in industry and services also contributed to poverty reduction (World Bank). The unemployment rate was estimated by the World Bank at 2.3% in 2023 (latest data available); however, around 40% of the workforce is employed in the informal sector. Finally, it has to be noted that the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) is still very low, estimated at USD 7,648 in 2024 by the IMF.

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