Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Heavily dependent on the oil sector and on food imports, the Gabonese economy is vulnerable to global fluctuations in commodity prices. The August 2023 coup d’état led to significant shifts in Gabon’s economic policies, including the adoption of more expansionary fiscal measures and enhanced efforts to strengthen institutions and improve transparency in public financial management. In 2023, Gabon's GDP grew by 2.4%, a slowdown from 2022, as railway blockages caused by landslides disrupted manganese and wood exports. Moderate growth is expected to continue at around 2.9% in 2024-26. Declining reserves will begin to reduce oil output in 2025, but growth will be supported by the expansion of the wood industry, oil palm and rubber plantations, and the start of production at new iron and manganese deposits. Additionally, major public projects will drive growth in construction and services.

Gabon’s fiscal stance has loosened significantly since the August 2023 regime change, driven by the new leadership’s focus on addressing social demands through increased government spending. This has included hiring more civil servants and raising the wage bill by 7% annually in both 2024 and 2025. The budget balance shifted from a 2.5% surplus in 2023—when spending remained moderate and revenue growth was strong—to an estimated 0.2% deficit in 2024 on a cash basis. Additionally, in 2024, the government accumulated substantial payment arrears, with Fitch Ratings estimating the deficit on a commitment basis at 1.7% of GDP, compared to a 1.8% surplus in 2023. Fitch also estimates that the non-oil primary balance to non-oil GDP deteriorated to 13.7% of GDP in 2024, from 10.3% in 2023 and 8.5% in 2021; projecting budget deficits of 1.2% of GDP in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 on a cash basis, rising to 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively, when factoring in the accumulation of new arrears. Meanwhile, debt declined to 67% of GDP in 2024 from 71% one year earlier, driven by external debt repayments and strong nominal GDP growth. However, it is expected to rise again to 71% in 2025 and 72% in 2026 due to lower nominal oil GDP and wider budget deficits. Inflation continued to ease in 2024 due to expanded price ceilings on essential goods, fuel subsidies, and tight monetary policy, and should remain below the 3.0 regional convergence criteria over the forecast horizon.

Gabon is classified as an upper-middle-income country with a GDP per capita above its neighbours (at USD 24,128 PPP in 2024 as per the IMF). However, social indicators lag behind the country's wealth. A third of the population lives below the poverty line (nearly 5% live on less than a dollar and a half every day), and unemployment is very high: in 2023, it stood at 20.3% (World Bank, ILO estimate). The dominance of non-labour-intensive oil and mining industries, limited private sector growth, and mismatched labour skills contribute to such high unemployment. Persistent joblessness, along with underfunded and poorly targeted social protection, is expected to keep poverty levels high, reaching a projected 39.0% by 2025. The absolute number of people living in poverty in Gabon is expected to exceed one million by 2026 (World Bank).

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